The
Discovery News website recently
published an article that has become of great interest to astronomers and
astronomy aficionados worldwide. The article, titled “Massive Asteroid to Hit
Earth in 2040?”, was posted on February 28th 2012 by Leonard David
of “space.com”, and as the title implies this article explores the possibility
of a 460 feet wide asteroid called “2011 AG5” violently smashing into Earth in
2040. Mount Lemmon Survey astronomers from Tucson, Arizona discovered the giant
space rock in January of 2011.
At the moment, scientists
are keeping a lookout on this asteroid as to know whether the threat is real or
real or not. Some scientists are calling for a deflection plan to prevent a
collision between Earth and the asteroid. In the news article, there is a link
to an article in “space.com” that clearly states an action plan on how to
deflect, or stop, a huge asteroid and prevent it from crashing into our planet.
The
danger this asteroid may pose in future decades was discussed in Vienna,
Austria during the past 49th session of the Scientific and Technical
Subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer
Space (COPUOS), held in February of 2012. This conferences UN Action Team on
near-Earth objects (NEOs) reminded the international community of the various
times that this asteroid has come within reach of to Earth and the possibility
that it might collide with Earth in the future. However, it is unlikely that
this will happen.
The
mass and composition of this asteroid are currently unknown. The asteroid has
only been observed for half an orbit so nothing is sure about the calculations
that indicate the common path between this asteroid and Earth. In order to
declare a “real” threat of the possibility of this asteroid crashing into
Earth, the asteroid must be observed for “at least one, if not two, full
orbits”, said Detlef Koschny of the European Space Agency’s Solar System
Missions Division in Noordwijk, The Netherlands.
Scientists like Koschny are
fighting to make other astronomers aware of this asteroid and are trying to
create more research institutions like the European Southern Observatory so
that they can give objects like this one the allocation of special telescope
time that they deserve.
Current studies indicate
that, if asteroid 2011 AG5 hits Earth, it will be on February 5th of
20140 and it has a probability of hitting of 1 in 625, or .0016% chance, as
denoted by Donald Yeomans, head of the Near-Earth Object Observations Program
at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Yeoman also said
that if the impact probability does not significantly decrease after further
observing this object, “there would be time to mount a deflection mission to
alter its course.”
The
asteroids orbit may be perturbed due to gravitational effects of small regions
in space near Earth called keyholes. This implies that the Earth can possibly
place the asteroid into path and thus impacting with it due to its own
gravitational pull. If the asteroid passes through a keyhole in February 2023,
as it is currently expected, it will go closer to Earth and be 0.02 astronomical
units (AUs) from Earth. If the asteroid passes through this keyhole, then there
is a real chance that it will impact Earth in 20140. The keyhole is roughly 62
miles wide. Yeomans says that it is not that hard to make the asteroid deflect
that relatively large keyhole in 2012 and thus prevent the collision expected
between 2036 and 2040.
If
a collision were to occur, this would definitely mean a great catastrophe for
Earth and possibly the end of humankind. It is an currently not an eminent threat;
yet, it could become one.
Yeomans
said that the current plan is to wait until observations are finished in 2016
so that then they can make any preliminary plans for a potential deflection
mission. He says that by 2016 we “will almost certaintly see the impact
probability for 2011 AG5 significantly decrease”.
This
news is important and pertinent to the study of the Solar System because this
event could pose is a potential change to the world we live in and in essence,
to the galaxy and the universe we live in. This information contributes to the
formation of the Solar System because events like this, collisions between
giant asteroids and planets, could have possible changed the course and the
structure of the planets in our thirteen billion year old universe.
It is definitely an object that should be kept on the lookout but nothing to be
scared of, yet.
Artist’s
depiction of Earth being hit by an asteroid
Size
comparison of Asteroid 2011 AG5 and Earth
References:
For Astronomy II class.
